. . . but the question is, what does it actually say about the future of the Ukraine Civil War? (It seems to be in Babylonian.)
Editorial Introduction
This Aggregation commences with a concatenation of citations that I hope will illustrate the self-destructive insanity of the Collective West’s–especially our own–leadership elites. The U.S./Western “peace deals” I have heard about offer no advantage to Moscow whatsoever over what it is doing right now, and promise long-term harm to it.
But then at the end of the first Simplicius citation, we get a refreshingly anti-bloviating, forecast of a practical and plausible path to at least an armistice. High Time!
Kit Klarenberg
Esoteric data point confirms Ukraine proxy war is over. In a little-noticed development in late September, the British government’s chief foreign policy advisor John Bew quit without warning or much in the way of explanation. Let’s dive into why this is *highly* significant.
[This is all I can access, but it is the first of a series of tweets. The gist of this appears to be that London is ‘pivoting’ away from advisor Bew’s rabid war against Russia through Proxy Ukraine.
If true, then continuing the war any further is sheer genocide; the trend has been consistent and unmistakable: Russia has already slaughtered three whole Ukrainian armies and is well on the way to annihilating the fourth. Entire Western {Polish?} military units on the ground in the Ukraine? The Collective West knows that its home territories would be targeted.]
A Probable Repeat [As Mr. Miyagi say to Karati Kid, “Not strange, Old Man forget.” Old Man also forget source.]
The Ukraine Must Die
The Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister reports that, while visiting the White House in early 2022 but before the Special Military Operation commenced, he saw the folder that had been prepared by our CIA and military intelligence that documented the death of the Ukraine. “The Ukraine asa state is going die.”
The former Foreign Minister did not make clear whether President Zelenskiy had previously seen this file, had been present at the same time, or whether he had briefed the President later. Zelenskiy, though, did know this. Notwithstanding the dire future this portrayed, the U.S. insisted that Kiev proceed, and Zelensky insisted on proceding.
This jibes with the map proposed or prophesied by Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev that shows Poland, Hungary, and ROmania receiving back their traditional territories, with Russia taking everything else except for the Kiev Oblast itself, left as a Russian puppet. (As you might imagine, there are many strategic flaws in this vision, most to Moscow’s disadvantage.)
If this be true, how is the whole Ukraine Civil War not unvarnished genocide fomented by our State and Defense Departments and West Wing and NATO, with multiple generations of Ukrainian men the hapless victims?
N O T E:
I hope that the above at least stimulates the thought that perhaps Kiev’s “National Sovereignty” has been a myth ever since early 2014 when Toria Nuland bought it from Ukrainian traitors for $5Billion U.S.D. (actually, as it came to light before she was fired, $10.5Billion, but still chump change for any nation’s sovereignty).
Turn, then, to the first point that I highlight from Simplicius:
Simplicius the Thinker November 12th
This remarkably candid report confesses without a shred of abashment that the Ukraine’s every move is dictated out of the U.S. government’s halls of power, usually transmitted through the U.S. Embassy in Kiev:
The United States [ ! ] is considering holding parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine in 2025, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported. The creation of a new pro-American party is being discussed among US-funded Ukrainian activists. The nomination of candidates for the elections will be carried out in agreement with the State Department. [ ! ]
Simplicius reminds us:
. . . This is precisely what we’ve been predicting here since last year: that once Zelensky begins to act recalcitrant against ending the war, Washington would have no choice but to begin drumming up ‘democratic’ Ukrainian elections in order to install a new more popular leader, amenable to Washington’s demands. To manufacture victory for this leader would be as easy for Washington as any other routine coup, since all media organs are owned by the West. Zaluzhny would be the obvious choice particularly since I reported several articles ago how he had recently hinted he’s no longer concerned about regaining all Ukrainian territory, which is likely his way of signaling to the West that he’s the man for the hatchet job.
The problem with all this is that it still all relies entirely on the mythical belief that Putin will negotiate and end the war so long as there’s an agreeable Ukrainian ‘leader’ to meet him at the table.. . .
Furthermore:
[The thing that shall decide] . . . which way things go . . . will undoubtedly be Russia’s expected winter strike campaign on the energy grid. If . . . Russia follows through with carrying out a ‘dark winter’ without any late leniency from Putin, it could be the deciding factor which sours society to the war to such an extent as to completely preclude Zelensky’s ability of drafting the 18-year olds [and thus extend the war for another year or so]. . . .
The West continues to profess bafflement over Kiev’s incursion into the Kursk Oblast (despite it likely having been planned and scheduled by none other than NATO’s Supremo, General Cavoli). Here’s my gloss of Simplicius:
To save face, Kiev’s standing orders are to hold the Kursk Bridgehead at all costs. Meanwhile, Kiev pumps the West full of propagandistic bilge about the presence of terrifyingly irresistible North Koreans to provide cover for the Ukrainian Army’s inevitable defeat and retreat.
Simplicius notes a few asides. First,that Russia’s winter, and thus the Ukraine’s winter, is forecasted to be mild. The Russian Army has recently added 100,000 more fresh recruits, surely indicating that Russian commitment winning to this conflict charges along strongly. [NOTE: British PM, Sir Keir Starmer, warned that should the U.S. wobble on Kiev, Britain would have to pay money and send its soldiers. OK, but it does not have enough soldiers to fill more than about 70,000 seats in Moscow’s main sports arena. So how are such numbers going to turn the tide against the already 600,000 to 800,000 in-theater [the Ukraine says 800,000], plus the 100,000 new recruits? {And this in the face of Larry Johnson reporting that Ukrainian-Russian casualties are runninng 12-1.} Does anybody sniff a madman here? A clown?] Russia is calmly smug over having repaired a Bradley Armored Personnel Carrier that struck a mine, and returned it to the service of the Russian Army. The soldiers in the video give it warm praise. To note it out of place, but likely of interest only to fans of flying and aircraft, Simplicius notes that likely a couple of Su-57s and some Su-35s have been delivered to Russia’s Air Force. Also included is 8:15 of blistering airshow performance under the masterful command of a senior test pilot during a Beijing airshow. I would not know an Immelman Roll from a jellyroll, but lithe maneuverability is evident even to me. Loops, rolls, spins, and rocketing straight up, along with the Cobra Move, in which the aircraft suddenly stands on its tail demonstrate the competentce of Russia’s domestic military aircraft industry. Simplicius observes that all parties are anticipating Russia’s Big Arrow assault on Zaporozhia to commence any time now. Indeed, in his typical style, he says this from five or six angles and sources, so I am refraining from posting such granularity. OK, we get the point.
He concludes with this wry, shrewd, media source’s sangfroid forecast, which I have lightly edited:
Legitimny channel had an interesting theory for how Trump will approach the armistice negotiations, which does seem reasonably realistic and clever:
Our source modeled for us a scenario where Trump doesn’t have to force anyone into peace talks on the Ukraine crisis.
As the source explained, the matter will be simpler:
Trump will roll out his proposals, the Kremlin will respond that it is ready to negotiate, but at the highest level (Trump-Putin-Xi), however Zelensky will refuse because there will be provisions about the . . . [relinquishment] of territories that . . . [Kiev does] not control and a lot of other things, plus the most important thing–the lifting of sanctions on Russia and re-elections in Ukraine with the admission of all (amnesty for all). Also for Xi to negotiate with Putin . . . [will be a sticking point for Zelenskiy]. He should revoke his own decree banning negotiations.
Trump will reply that he tried, but the Kiev authorities refused, so we wash our hands of it and leave all this . . . [mess] to Europe. . . .[Europeans] will say that they don’t have enough money and weapons and won’t . . . [proceed by] themselves. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will start retreating even faster, making the situation even worse.
At the same time, Trump will call the Ukrainian government corrupt and start an audit criticizing the Democrats.
This could be the scenario. One thing is certain. The year 2025 will be decisive, and many are sure that by the end of the 2025 or the beginning of 2026, there will be elections anyway. Zelensky will lose.
We’ll see how it goes.
Seems plausible. What do you think?