Attorney Robert Barnes writes,

  • The polling aggregates show a common trend: Trump and Biden around 40% each, with Trump generally leading, and Kennedy at 10%, another 2-5% for smaller third-party candidates, and 10% to 15% of the electorate up for grabs. While that is commonly known, what is far less known is who makes up those voting constituencies, because there has been a rather massive shift from past Presidential elections.
  • The biggest shift since 2016 and 2020 comes with the very voter group Democrats depended upon for their future majorities: millennials and zoomers, an increasing share of the electorate each cycle. Biden won black voters by an 84 point margin, Hispanic voters by a 20 point margin, Independents by a 10 point margin, Zoomers by a 25 point margin, and Millennials by a 20 point margin. Biden won younger GenX narrowly, lost older GenX, lost Boomers by about a 5 point margin, and lost the last of the Silent Generation vote by 15 points. The Zoomer/Millennial/younger GenX vote will be a majority of the Presidential vote for the first time in 2024. This vote is also more ethnically diverse than the older generations of voters, and less culturally conservative. Trump’s 70 point win margin amongst white evangelicals followed his 2016 successes.
  • Trump’s margin amongst older voters, white evangelicals, self-described conservatives, self-identified Republicans remains mostly unchanged from 2020. The entire movement in the margin comes from a different cohort of voters: millennials, zoomers, younger GenX voters, minority voters, non-church going voters, all anticipated to be Democratic voter strongholds. Consider Biden’s approval ratings which now fall behind Trump’s. Biden’s approval rating with black voters is only +14 and is negative 30 with Hispanic voters, and most of that derives from the younger generations within each voter group. Biden’s highest negative rating is with the very groups he won the biggest support from in 2020: younger GenX, Millennials, and Zoomers, who hold a negative 30 to negative 40 rating of Biden. Isolate further and you find the deepest shift comes from non-college, minority and millennial voters. By contrast, white evangelicals rating of Biden matches the 2020 election results, just as the approval rating amongst Republicans and older voters mostly mirrors the 2020 election results. 
  • A quick glimpse at why explains: the economy, and the interrelated issue of immigration, and the waste of resources on foreign wars. These voter groups oppose foreign bailouts, open borders, and poor economic policies. These same voter groups also like government supported access to medical care, direct access to capital through education or investment, minimum wage and labor protection. They are not country-club conservatives nor are they church-pew conservatives. They generally empathize with environmentalism, but not at the excessive expense of their pocket-book. They know immigration hurts them because they see it every day; they have lived the job charts showing all new jobs went to the foreign born under Biden. They don’t want to be preached at by woke films or evangelical preachers.  
  • Of note, this has also been the target-rich constituency for Kennedy’s populist message, which moderated his environmental, immigration and gun positions to accommodate. Kennedy’s 16% support currently tops out amongst one overlapping group: minority, millennials and zoomers, with no-college degree, who do not identify with either political party and do not have a very favorable view of either Biden or Trump. While Kennedy barely budges the needle amongst self-described MAGA Republicans (so low as to be within the margin of error for 0%), amongst self-described Independent, non-college voters under 50, Kennedy is the #1 vote-getter currently in several surveys. Of significance, amongst those under-50 independent non-college voters who say they “have heard enough” about Kennedy, he wins over 50% of their votes. Currently, half of the voters in those demographic groups haven’t tuned in to the election, and report they haven’t heard enough yet about Kennedy, showing high growth potential for Kennedy, depending upon campaign financing, ballot access, and debate participation. This is why the Kennedy effect is coming in less predictable places: Kennedy surging in Georgia and Nevada more than old Catholic working-class north where his father and uncle won their big vote margins. 
  • It appears both Trump and Biden camps don’t understand who is voting for Kennedy, or even who has shifted from Biden to Trump since 2020. Both camps attack Kennedy as if they are losing their partisan base to Kennedy, when neither is. Trump’s base amongst older conservatives, the evangelical Christian base (almost half of his 40% core vote support), rural voters concerned with gun rights and traditional lifestyles, energy voters concerned with environmentalism threats to their employment, and older industrial voter groups favoring Trump’s trade policies are not threatened by Kennedy’s campaign, nor are the older loyalist labor union minority voters and professional-managerial class often government-employed base of Biden’s voters. This means Kennedy will likely get a free pass amongst the key voter groups who he is appealing to, and who will decide this election. Expect Kennedy to rise in the surveys and markets come fall. 
  • Trump is still in the driver’s seat due to the simple message that under Trump there was peace abroad and prosperity at home, a sentiment reflected in the shifting approval of Trump. Indeed, Trump net negative -10 approval rating during his Presidency is now typically net-positive, and the entire movement comes from the same younger voter groups, especially minority younger voter groups, driving the shift in the electoral landscape. Biden’s strategy of Trump fear mongering and criminal lawfare hasn’t budged the needle at all, and voters now report they won’t change their mind even if Trump is convicted of a crime in these cases. The credibility of these cases collapsed in the court of public opinion, and is unlikely to see any resurrection. Trump’s ace card over Kennedy remains perceived electability. How he plays it will shape his vote margins, and how close it gets in swing states. 
  • This election will be decided by the new working class – younger, more minority, less religiously observant, and more culturally-connected. The candidates best attuned to them will exceed expectations and rise in the polls and markets, as well as election day vote tallies. As always, KYA — know your audience, and the candidate the best knows their audience has the best chance of success. This favors Trump and Kennedy, not Biden, too, just as the core concerns of the key swing voter constituencies do. 

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