Jacob Dreizin’s September 9th piece on Russia’s war in Ukraine includes an interesting paragraph.
Putin’s “political” strategy of waging a big war without sufficient manpower (as I briefly covered in a recent post), not bothering the general population with a mass call-up of trained reserves, has shown its first big slide towards disaster.
Then in Dreizin’s article today, September 10th, in which he talks about Ukraine’s offensive in Kupiansk, he writes,
It’s not necessarily a huge “military” loss (Russian casualties so far have been VERY low, but we’ll see how much gear they must leave behind) but it is a huge political loss for Putin and for all Russian Ukrainians who trusted that Russia is “here to stay.”
This is one reason why I think Putin may be replaced soon.
Medvedev wanted to go into Ukraine and use nukes. Putin was far more restrained, opting for a low intensity effort, not initiating a mass call-up of reserves.
But a battlefield defeat or perception of defeat could begin to tip the scales in favor replacing Putin with someone more aggressive.
And Putin’s replacement won’t be a moderate. He’ll be a hardliner, someone who is willing to use nuclear weapons and escalate conflict with the West.
There may be a coup coming.